How Iran, the United States and Israel were once strategic partners before everything changed
The U.S.–Iran Alliance of the 20th Century
To understand today’s confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel, we must begin at a time when they were not adversaries — but partners.
In the early 20th century, the United States was not viewed in Tehran as a colonial threat. Britain and Russia dominated Iran’s politics and oil. America appeared distant and relatively neutral.
That changed in 1953.
Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, nationalized Iran’s oil industry, previously controlled by British interests. London retaliated with sanctions and sought U.S. support.
In August 1953, the CIA — working with Britain’s MI6 — orchestrated a coup that removed Mossadegh and restored the authority of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah.
For Washington, it was Cold War containment. For many Iranians, it was foreign interference in their democracy.
That memory never faded.
Iran and Israel: The Quiet Partnership
Few remember this today, but pre-1979 Iran maintained discreet yet meaningful ties with Israel.
Under the Shah:
- Iran recognized Israel de facto.
- Israeli advisors operated in Iran.
- Oil flowed between the two countries.
- Intelligence cooperation was robust.
One little-known collaboration was Project Flower, a secret missile development initiative between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
Iran, Israel, and the U.S. formed a quiet strategic triangle aimed at limiting Soviet and Arab nationalist influence.
That triangle collapsed in 1979.
1979 and the Iranian Revolution: the turning point that reshaped the middle east
The Iranian Revolution transformed Iran from a pro-Western monarchy into an Islamic Republic led by Ruhollah Khomeini.
Khomeini’s ideology rejected:
- Western political dominance
- U.S. military presence
- Israel’s legitimacy as a state
The Shah fled. The Islamic Republic was born.
Then came the rupture that defined modern hostility:
In November 1979, Iranian students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days.
Diplomatic relations were severed in 1980. They have never been restored.
From that point forward:
- America became the “Great Satan.”
- Israel became the “Little Satan.”
- Anti-Zionism became a pillar of Iran’s revolutionary identity.
The alliance had turned into enmity.
Inside the proxy war: how Iran, Israel and the US fought without declaring war
Direct war between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. remained rare. Instead, confrontation evolved into indirect conflict.
The Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988)
When Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980, the U.S. tilted toward Iraq.
Although Washington never fully aligned with Baghdad, it provided intelligence and political backing. Iran saw this as confirmation of American hostility.
The war hardened Tehran’s strategic doctrine:
- Never depend on foreign powers.
- Build deterrence.
- Develop asymmetric warfare capabilities.
The “Axis of Resistance”
Iran began building influence through non-state allies:
- Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Hamas in Gaza
- Shiite militias in Iraq
- The Houthis in Yemen
This network became known as the “Axis of Resistance.”
Israel views this as an encirclement strategy.
The United States views it as destabilization.
Iran views it as deterrence.
Thus began decades of shadow warfare.
The Iran nuclear crisis explained: why enrichment became the world’s biggest red line
The next major escalation centered on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran insists its program is civilian.
Israel argues a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat.
The U.S. sees proliferation risk.
In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed between Iran and world powers.
It limited enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief.
In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal.
Sanctions returned.
Tensions spiked.
Iran gradually expanded enrichment.
From that moment onward, nuclear diplomacy became intermittent and fragile.
From shadow conflict to open confrontation: how tensions exploded in the 2020s
By the 2020s, confrontation moved closer to open conflict.
Key flashpoints included:
- U.S. killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani (2020)
- Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria
- Attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf
- Cyber warfare operations
The conflict shifted from proxy containment to calibrated direct strikes.
Recent years have seen:
- Drone exchanges
- Missile launches
- Coordinated U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities
- Regional spillover involving Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen
The rivalry is no longer hypothetical. It is active.
Oil, Gold and Risk: how the Iran conflict is shaking Gulf economies and global markets
Gulf States: Caught Between Deterrence and Exposure
Full Timeline: How it all unfolded
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 1953 | CIA-backed coup removes Mossadegh |
| 1970s | Iran–Israel covert cooperation |
| 1979 | Iranian Revolution; U.S. Embassy hostage crisis |
| 1980–1988 | Iran–Iraq War |
| 1990s–2000s | Iran strengthens Hezbollah and regional proxies |
| 2015 | JCPOA nuclear deal signed |
| 2018 | U.S. withdraws from JCPOA |
| 2020 | Soleimani killed by U.S. drone strike |
| 2020s | Escalating Israel–Iran shadow war |
| Mid-2020s | Direct military exchanges intensify |
Why the Iran–Israel rivalry affects energy, security and the global economy
Energy Security
Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows.
Any escalation threatens:
- Oil prices
- Shipping insurance markets
- Global inflation
Nuclear Non-Proliferation
If Iran develops nuclear weapons capability:
- Saudi Arabia may pursue its own program.
- Regional nuclear arms race risk increases.
- Israeli pre-emptive strike risk rises.
Great Power Competition
Russia and China maintain ties with Iran.
The U.S. anchors Israel and Gulf allies.
This conflict intersects with broader geopolitical realignment.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states sit on the frontline of this rivalry.
They face:
- Missile and drone threats to oil infrastructure
- Economic exposure through the Strait of Hormuz
- Dependence on U.S. security guarantees
Saudi Arabia and the UAE must balance:
- Avoiding direct war with Iran
- Maintaining U.S. alignment
- Protecting oil exports
Any sustained escalation could:
- Damage critical facilities
- Spike global oil prices
- Trigger emergency defense integration
The Gulf’s stability underpins global energy markets.
Global Markets: Oil, Gold, Inflation, and Risk
This rivalry directly affects:
Oil
Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global oil passes through it.
Any disruption:
- Drives Brent prices higher
- Raises shipping insurance
- Reignites global inflation
Gold
Geopolitical escalation typically pushes investors toward safe-haven assets.
Equities
Markets react sharply to:
- Missile exchanges
- Hormuz threats
- Nuclear escalation
Energy price spikes feed directly into:
- Transport costs
- Food inflation
- Industrial production
A prolonged conflict could:
- Slow global growth
- Pressure emerging markets
- Force central banks into difficult trade-offs
Why this conflict matters globally
- Energy Security
- Nuclear Non-Proliferation
- Great Power Competition
Russia and China maintain ties with Iran.
The U.S. anchors Israel and Gulf allies.
This rivalry intersects with a broader global realignment.
The unresolved tensions keeping Iran, Israel and the US on a collision course
- Historical grievance (1953 coup)
- Ideological opposition post-1979
- Regional power competition
- Israel’s security doctrine
- Iran’s deterrence strategy
- U.S.–Israel strategic alliance
- Nuclear ambiguity and mistrust
None of these have been resolved.
What happens next in the Iran conflict: three possible paths forward
Three possible trajectories:
Managed Deterrence
Continued shadow conflict without full-scale war.
Regional War
Multi-front confrontation involving Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Gulf states.
Diplomatic Reset
Unlikely in the short term — but possible if nuclear negotiations revive and regional security guarantees emerge.
How a 70-year rivalry became the Middle East’s most dangerous standoff
The Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict did not begin with missiles or nuclear centrifuges.
It began with:
- A coup.
- A revolution.
- Competing visions of sovereignty and security.
Friends became adversaries.
Alliances hardened.
Narratives solidified.
Today, it is one of the most volatile geopolitical rivalries in the world — layered with ideology, history, energy markets, and nuclear risk.
Understanding how it began is essential to understanding where it may go next.
